NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47fc376a1fa06d6af3161c01eb2de85baee3a4969780f633e99956e3e320efd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Eagles, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Eagles | 42c | 16,105$6,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,746.99 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cowboys | 61c | 10,971$6,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,323.16 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cowboys | 59c | 8,298$4,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,437.36 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Eagles | 41c | 6,000$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Eagles | 38c | 5,483$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.54 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Eagles | 41c | 4,285$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.85 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cowboys | 58c | 4,073$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.5 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys | 58c | 3,338$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.06 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Eagles | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Cowboys | 55c | 2,500$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…955abacked Cowboys | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Cowboys | 59c | 1,759$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.24 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 59c | 1,657$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.74 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Eagles | 42c | 1,298$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Eagles | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Cowboys | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Cowboys | 61c | 800$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cowboys | 59c | 772$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.92 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Eagles | 45c | 731$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.95 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Cowboys | 59c | 719.98$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.19 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Eagles | 47c | 498.52$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cowboys | 61c | 471.52$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cowboys | 59c | 419.2$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cowboys | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Eagles | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Cowboys | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cowboys | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Eagles | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Eagles | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles | 53c | 184.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cowboys | 57c | 117.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Eagles | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Eagles | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Eagles | 41c | 42.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cowboys | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Eagles | 50c | 26.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…ab6fbacked Cowboys | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)this page
- Eagles vs. CowboysCowboys won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 24.5Over won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 49.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.