La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacaff969e04c8c99a838681ae2620523eb58eff93dc08da76dfb68f77d04a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 34,178$4,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,465.4 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 13c | 16,055$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.1 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 14c | 8,975$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.21 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 12c | 7,333$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.64 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Yes | 4c | 6,036$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.44 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 13c | 5,165$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.08 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2c26backed Yes | 13c | 2,992$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 15c | 2,329$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e3…68b4backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,638$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…8429backed Yes | 13c | 1,588$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 1,534$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…b3e2backed Yes | 13c | 1,492$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 12c | 1,398$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 13c | 1,269$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 12c | 1,192$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,126$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 13c | 1,012$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Yes | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 13c | 999.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb82…ef9bbacked Yes | 9c | 685.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…133cbacked Yes | 17c | 623.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Yes | 16c | 451.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Yes | 9c | 438.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…7302backed Yes | 14c | 420.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 14c | 409.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 15c | 358.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 4c | 288$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b6…68d6backed Yes | 13c | 269.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 14c | 242.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 15c | 240.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 16c | 236.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…ea15backed Yes | 6c | 219.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Yes | 14c | 216.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…3abebacked Yes | 16c | 204.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 195.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 12c | 166.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f8…4a03backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes | 15c | 133.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…14efbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Yes | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 14c | 120.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4c82backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…285ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 13c | 99.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…90a1backed Yes | 15c | 95.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Yes | 14c | 94.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 12c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…ce42backed Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…49d5backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 14c | 76.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…7152backed Yes | 16c | 75.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…db37backed Yes | 14c | 73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…f6f1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.