Tweets · resolved market
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef2e4c86200a9fb25f86ba6e9faaa61c6788867d83c60e4d0562ceb8b84986c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 8c | 680.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 63c | 633.86$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 37c | 399.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 35c | 395.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 50c | 247$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 33c | 219.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 64c | 182.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…33e2backed No | 58c | 146.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac4…a8c9backed No | 61c | 128.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked No | 58c | 86.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…7fbbbacked Yes | 25c | 79.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +299.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 61.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb179…8cf4backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…f103backed Yes | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 51.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…cb6fbacked No | 39c | 30.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 80c | 26.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…8847backed No | 80c | 20.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked No | 76c | 17.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.