TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Timberwolves, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,548,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,895,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,548,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 661 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Timberwolves25c649,380$162,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162,197.441,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Kings27c201,330$55,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146,204.158333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Kings8c162,892$13,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149,246.9825925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Timberwolves44c150,000$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,999.9238248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Kings19c59,280$10,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,312.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+440.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Kings21c40,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,599.7713248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bda…4282backed Timberwolves61c38,293$23,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,200.1215950.3%80 W · 79 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves67c34,665$23,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,285.234,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Timberwolves79c31,646$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings20c27,344$5,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,821.7674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Kings35c26,229$9,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,953.0316848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Timberwolves80c25,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Kings20c19,774$3,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,806.6569852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Timberwolves67c19,211$12,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,935.671,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Timberwolves34c17,518$5,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,897.3648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Kings15c16,660$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,160.983411.8%4 W · 30 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-62%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Kings20c16,000$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,719.8513345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Timberwolves54c14,470$7,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,854.1113558.5%79 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Kings45c13,620$6,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,546.8619388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Timberwolves62c11,844$7,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,327.3626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves68c11,748$8,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,020.782,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings66c11,555$7,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.155,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Kings37c10,504$3,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,595.9744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Kings20c10,210$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,210.151540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings21c10,100$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9791,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe461…0bd9backed Timberwolves0c10,073$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Timberwolves78c10,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,799.911,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Timberwolves80c8,929$7,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,128.381,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Timberwolves79c8,872$7,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,007.982,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed Kings15c8,333$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,083.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Kings13c7,270$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,335.4866744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings19c7,131$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,763.69,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kings19c6,562$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,315.6172450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kings62c6,415$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.692,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Timberwolves40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Kings43c5,992$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,390.881,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings21c5,987$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,717.273,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings21c5,890$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,646.0147028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Kings66c5,828$3,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.9914551%74 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Timberwolves80c5,716$4,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,570.3144648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kings21c5,007$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.652,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf90…fa89backed Kings19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+46.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…51e3backed Kings21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.8510941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Timberwolves80c4,963$3,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.1629351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Timberwolves80c4,563$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,650.6415443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1517…5b34backed Kings79c4,476$3,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.612050%10 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Kings20c4,445$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,55619136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Timberwolves64c4,390$2,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.3315551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Kings33c4,279$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880.771,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings20c4,131$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.1561835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves80c4,020$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2164,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabcb…d8d7backed Timberwolves2c3,990$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.85219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Timberwolves69c3,782$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.391,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc90…ec0cbacked Timberwolves3c3,499$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.92160%0 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Kings29c3,077$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.0112334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked Timberwolves51c3,035$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.0116750.9%85 W · 82 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Kings20c3,003$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.1750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Kings21c2,910$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,295.8855346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd162…0d24backed Kings15c2,888$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.184843.8%21 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Kings18c2,722$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.983345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe66f…bfb8backed Kings22c2,559$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.091040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Kings22c2,500$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4701…7954backed Kings20c2,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa9…1351backed Kings14c2,468$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.851010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Timberwolves61c2,291$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.461,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings37c2,246$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.5376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Kings9c2,200$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00011142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked Timberwolves59c2,178$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.149943.4%43 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings12c2,077$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.393,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Timberwolves1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Kings21c2,000$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.4575347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Kings21c2,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5806636.4%24 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Timberwolves78c2,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9843247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed2…15ecbacked Timberwolves57c1,950$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Timberwolves79c1,858$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46815855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Kings22c1,831$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.225850%29 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146c…54e1backed Kings22c1,818$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e94…61c6backed Timberwolves79c1,818$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.22785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Timberwolves56c1,752$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.9213957.6%80 W · 59 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a80…44e7backed Kings6c1,700$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+202.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3569…8c8dbacked Kings19c1,600$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2961136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a7…b64dbacked Timberwolves80c1,590$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.4213953.2%74 W · 65 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Timberwolves58c1,552$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Timberwolves35c1,546$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.5916346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Kings20c1,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20031347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Kings20c1,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9917931.8%57 W · 122 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Timberwolves79c1,440$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.694951.3%487 W · 462 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Timberwolves18c1,434$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26218345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Kings7c1,427$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.2447949.7%238 W · 241 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Timberwolves69c1,400$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kings43c1,388$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.9881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Kings42c1,288$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.1441954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Kings39c1,221$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.2885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Kings18c1,206$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.7232151.7%166 W · 155 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d0…673fbacked Kings19c1,200$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9721136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Timberwolves79c1,177$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.9973647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Kings20c1,158$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.7695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Kings37c1,130$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.7719448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves80c1,116$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.771,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kings18c1,115$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.141,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.