NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196a3f8253e6d031722d3eaef71f199bc33c1d3872c854091c3da395f2ba1161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Kings | 42c | 17,500$7,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,150 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Timberwolves | 58c | 17,082$9,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,907.3 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 48c | 4,040$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Timberwolves | 52c | 4,000$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 42c | 3,953$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 55c | 1,567$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.85 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 45c | 1,180$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.27 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 45c | 664.39$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Kings | 45c | 479.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.02 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Timberwolves | 54c | 259.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Timberwolves | 56c | 240.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Timberwolves | 57c | 206.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 205.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Timberwolves | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…d048backed Timberwolves | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 42c | 193$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kings | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Timberwolves | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Kings | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Timberwolves | 55c | 109.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kings | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Timberwolves | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Timberwolves | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Timberwolves | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 45c | 96.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Timberwolves | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 56c | 76.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Kings | 45c | 57.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Timberwolves | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Timberwolves | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Timberwolves | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Kings | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Timberwolves | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Timberwolves | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Timberwolves | 54c | 43.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Timberwolves | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Timberwolves | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Timberwolves | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Timberwolves | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -13.7wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Timberwolves | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Timberwolves | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…4476backed Timberwolves | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Kings won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsKings won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.