NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a57e7642bb7a080e0c28c1532fb24723d2f34ed7e59f598f4b162782f96df0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Kings | 51c | 58,134$29,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,485.49 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Timberwolves | 49c | 50,728$24,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,856.72 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 10,500$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kings | 50c | 10,003$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.56 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 44c | 8,533$3,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,745.69 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Timberwolves | 50c | 7,288$3,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,644 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5f2bbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 7,040$3,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 1,253$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.7 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Kings | 51c | 1,148$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.52 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 638.99$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…24d0backed Kings | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 50c | 452.94$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 49c | 339$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…ff78backed Timberwolves | 54c | 122.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Timberwolves | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 20.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Kings won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsKings won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.