NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e429b763ab21484b91af64972dee33e3df95ebcb31fe65e16f4fd248b3132e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…97f2backed Over | 53c | 4,264$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,767$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.27 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 51c | 2,488$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.12 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 1,640$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.6 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 49c | 1,000$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.04 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 889.78$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.71 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 662.28$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 328$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 229.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…e305backed Over | 53c | 194.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Under | 60c | 90.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 44c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Kings won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsKings won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.