NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef98aef8ff4ff4a3a82c3b871a4557be87e94703ddb35c525f35daccbf3878e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,170$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…0706backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…bce1backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 460.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.19 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 51c | 460.78$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…9ecabacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 84.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Under | 52c | 81.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…8487backed Under | 52c | 80.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 47c | 53.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…2be4backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Kings won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsKings won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.