Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a94a58fffcf7d0ee33c6bd3f879c77261deca52735a1f3afb99053b4d4253f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x038f…041ebacked No | 48c | 1,800$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…b4dbbacked No | 46c | 1,650$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e8…9112backed No | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6d6backed Yes | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…d7c3backed Yes | 52c | 1,195$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…7d3cbacked No | 48c | 1,195$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…bfa8backed Yes | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…f7a1backed No | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…509dbacked No | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…cc83backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…19b1backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…ceb0backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…c20abacked Yes | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…5b67backed Yes | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…9759backed Yes | 54c | 850$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…335bbacked Yes | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 79c | 599.99$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 70c | 434.68$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 41c | 423.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.7 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 15c | 343.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 31c | 279.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 55c | 270.54$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…a0c4backed Yes | 75c | 246.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 28c | 228.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 14c | 224.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 73c | 211.39$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 47c | 206.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…75e8backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…30e1backed No | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 63c | 187.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…4fd9backed Yes | 54c | 182$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb0…c2b8backed Yes | 69c | 170.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked No | 47c | 170$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 157.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 60c | 156.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…96c8backed Yes | 53c | 155$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 43c | 151.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 140.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 76c | 129.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 74c | 123.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 70c | 107.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 46c | 105.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked No | 73c | 97.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 44c | 93.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 64.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 60.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…3333backed No | 20c | 59.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 40c | 58.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 48c | 52.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 58c | 48.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…abf7backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2637backed Yes | 68c | 41.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c6…0272backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked No | 44c | 39.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 52c | 37.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 51c | 37.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 56c | 35.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 45c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 47c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 62c | 30.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 58c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1913…b422backed Yes | 44c | 27.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…bb67backed Yes | 54c | 22.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…ce10backed Yes | 56c | 17.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 62c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 43°F or below on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.