Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6731fc196704c953b6cab670172b7dd4cc578dff2d99fac9a7d4d10a94120e62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff70…65ffbacked Yes | 22c | 2,400$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…1c54backed Yes | 20c | 2,300$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d0…c0e3backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…fb48backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…ef92backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…744bbacked No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…ebd4backed No | 78c | 800$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…b654backed No | 78c | 800$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…5dbcbacked No | 78c | 800$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…fd57backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 19c | 700.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…10febacked No | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed No | 80c | 689.62$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 19c | 604.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 12c | 550$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 549.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 23c | 524.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 19c | 471.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 13c | 425.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 10c | 405.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed Yes | 17c | 388.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 19c | 366.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 15c | 361.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…e4fbbacked Yes | 19c | 354.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…63edbacked Yes | 12c | 305.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 80c | 303.02$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 300.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…7626backed Yes | 37c | 272.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 14c | 226.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 220.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…bbf9backed Yes | 12c | 219.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 17c | 214.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 23c | 201.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +458.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…a0c4backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…75e8backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 51c | 195$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 13c | 193.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 19c | 184.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 56c | 180$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 174.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 11c | 172.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 15c | 171.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 38c | 163.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390b…4354backed Yes | 22c | 158.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…91a7backed Yes | 23c | 158.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 17c | 157.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 78c | 156.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2637backed Yes | 16c | 151.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…1b83backed Yes | 47c | 143.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 36c | 128.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 17c | 126.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 113.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 20c | 110.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…4e7fbacked Yes | 23c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 58c | 101.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 23c | 101.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 14c | 95.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes | 51c | 90.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…3799backed Yes | 17c | 82.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 29c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 79.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 14c | 78.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 15c | 77.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 76.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…ce54backed Yes | 43c | 61.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 59c | 59.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 58.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…4a3abacked No | 53c | 54.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 66c | 45.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…abf7backed Yes | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…03e1backed No | 53c | 39.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…e233backed Yes | 52c | 33.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Yes | 33c | 30.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 44c | 30.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 39c | 26.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…914cbacked Yes | 53c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…6eaebacked Yes | 53c | 26.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 43°F or below on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.