TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,651 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff70…65ffbacked Yes22c2,400$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07d…1c54backed Yes20c2,300$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d0…c0e3backed Yes23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81fa…fb48backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ced…ef92backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x674c…744bbacked No80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…ebd4backed No78c800$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7056…b654backed No78c800$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…5dbcbacked No78c800$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfac3…fd57backed No80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes19c700.2$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5624010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db3…10febacked No80c700$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7b…80c9backed No80c689.62$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.35236.5%19 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes19c604.62$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8524710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes12c550$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3972726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes18c549.65$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.241,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes23c524.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6347834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes19c471.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes13c425.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2114719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes10c405.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6842…3eb4backed Yes17c388.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes19c366.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9126339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes15c361.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4412…e4fbbacked Yes19c354.28$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cd…63edbacked Yes12c305.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No80c303.02$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.66630.3%20 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c300.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.742,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes13c299.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3946423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44e4…7626backed Yes37c272.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+72.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…afb9backed Yes14c226.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.985042%21 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c220.72$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.032,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…bbf9backed Yes12c219.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes17c214.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4472125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes23c201.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.26829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+458.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x800b…a0c4backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea3…75e8backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.88825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes40c199.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8024710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No51c195$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.943360.6%20 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes13c193.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes19c184.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4347417.9%85 W · 389 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes56c180$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.44835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c174.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes11c172.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983d…933fbacked Yes15c171.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0149…fa64backed Yes38c163.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x390b…4354backed Yes22c158.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.781136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1866…91a7backed Yes23c158.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes17c157.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.117334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No78c156.08$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5760121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6349…2637backed Yes16c151.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc440…6149backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.323426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad05…1b83backed Yes47c143.78$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+180.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes36c128.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.031942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes17c126.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66723.9%16 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes30c113.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaec0…b953backed Yes20c110.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+73.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4541…4e7fbacked Yes23c102$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes58c101.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.566823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb887…649dbacked Yes23c101.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212161.9%13 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1736123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes14c95.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8615759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes51c90.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddca…3799backed Yes17c82.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes29c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.56139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No50c79.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.323,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes14c78.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1427560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes15c77.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5830333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes35c76.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.042,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.517460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…3ae0backed Yes22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3295…ce54backed Yes43c61.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a29…8b9ebacked No59c59.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.018458.3%49 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No52c58.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e60…4a3abacked No53c54.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…7afabacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312237.7%46 W · 76 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes66c45.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf756…abf7backed Yes52c44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bad…03e1backed No53c39.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.353,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2fc…e233backed Yes52c33.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes62c32.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+163.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa203…11bcbacked Yes33c30.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked No44c30.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4cf…78c4backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57261.1%44 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe353…d040backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5222…d2f6backed Yes39c26.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.454643.5%20 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ffc…914cbacked Yes53c26.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f2…6eaebacked Yes53c26.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.