Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa8c341119032f5ecabd15d4c8e03630aea71bfdc8c3f8adbbbaf2af9578409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 24c | 3,918$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.43 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed Yes | 12c | 2,211$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.35 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,130$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.41 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 73c | 1,376$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,068$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.11 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 14c | 931$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 74c | 802.99$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.96 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 15c | 800$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 12c | 780.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 747.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 35c | 616.87$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.67 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 33c | 583.33$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 71c | 412.66$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…65b7backed No | 79c | 305.63$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 6c | 299.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 293.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe249…1100backed Yes | 6c | 275.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 77c | 218.52$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 203.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 7c | 177.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 151.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 138.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…8b85backed No | 65c | 129.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…fa00backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 11c | 122.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…0fa0backed No | 75c | 111.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 73c | 108.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked No | 74c | 79.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 35c | 35.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…5998backed No | 73c | 34.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 74c | 32.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…ebb4backed No | 77c | 32.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 78c | 31.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf001…76c5backed Yes | 36c | 30.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0749…bd7cbacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…0de9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 43°F or below on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.