TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd352…4ad6backed No68c7,815$5,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…6bd2backed Yes28c6,760$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc47…bee4backed Yes32c2,080$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x748f…59d0backed Yes18c1,823$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…f8e4backed No75c1,693$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4536…4237backed No74c1,626$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed Yes28c1,599$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes24c1,500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No72c1,384$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No68c1,300$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-75.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8be8…b62fbacked Yes38c1,129$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes21c929.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes19c901.63$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46a…c10dbacked Yes35c861.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfb…3929backed Yes24c821.94$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes15c725$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No69c721.92$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.57911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No80c704.98$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes31c671.2$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.071010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfba…67debacked No75c667.55$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes33c569.53$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.681435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes11c556.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.51616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed No79c500$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.351414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed No68c450$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60d…ebfdbacked Yes24c443.95$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd4…edd2backed Yes32c400$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No75c399.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+227.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8317…1723backed No71c385.98$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…8e79backed Yes33c318.01$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No73c312.56$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.751136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x660d…2e08backed Yes25c300.01$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d3f…5e3abacked No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked No66c300$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32da…b112backed Yes31c280$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa211…657fbacked Yes16c260$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…df38backed Yes24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2143…2e6fbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes27c247.56$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Yes24c240$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No70c227.43$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c218.43$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…1993backed Yes33c200.12$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c3…eab3backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+325%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…92e2backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…06a5backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c9…586abacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3b…fc5cbacked Yes27c186.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No71c164.3$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54cd…71b9backed Yes29c164.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e03…dd32backed No75c154.06$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b3…e480backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0165…2281backed Yes28c149.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2b…c514backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.25837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…9d9cbacked No69c145.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed No66c140$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes31c131$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No76c130.15$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+128.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed No69c117$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b6…c5c5backed Yes18c111.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x57aa…04c5backed Yes18c105$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde09…2150backed Yes32c102.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f76…b5dbbacked Yes16c101$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f4…e93dbacked Yes29c101$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd776…396abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705c…4e11backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e6c…3b0fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…3f90backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07a6…8839backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…9d52backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993e…8ee9backed No65c99.95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+254.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x439f…5bb1backed Yes18c98.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa26e…861bbacked No65c98.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes15c82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36f…1ef4backed Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3be…94e4backed No69c78.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.12850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+114.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes22c75.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+111.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed No68c75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No69c74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes31c70.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e6…7af5backed No75c66.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf34…caf1backed No74c54.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f0…eb14backed Yes29c51.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b1…66f4backed Yes29c44.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6127…27debacked Yes30c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f1…4ecabacked Yes33c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127f…2cb0backed No78c28.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c6…0272backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb91…4059backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3782…a78bbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked No64c15.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.