Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82c8fb4d2b7bfdd4dffba4f23bb59332854979642e08f5c578e4f225d8d2844

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $454,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $242,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $454,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	124,999$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	18,404$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.28	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	15,845$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e24…175dbacked Yes	2c	12,704$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	10,169$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.7	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	9,330$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.3	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	4,469$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	3,817$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.84	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed Yes	4c	3,578$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	3,445$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,171$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	12c	3,040$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.82	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	18c	2,923$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.1	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	12c	2,220$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.8	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	2,108$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.26	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	11c	2,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,859$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.74	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	1,597$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	1,421$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	13c	1,356$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.88	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	3c	1,160$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	2c	1,160$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	2c	1,140$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	2c	1,101$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd603…ac01backed Yes	2c	1,031$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	10c	999.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	12c	999.93$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.99	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	6c	950$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	949.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	2c	929.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	879.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	9c	836.66$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	12c	830.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	13c	799.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	672.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc2…7d65backed Yes	13c	599.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	6c	592.86$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.14	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	12c	555$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…908ebacked Yes	19c	539.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes	6c	482.71$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.62	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	451.63$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.71	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d59…7f77backed Yes	7c	440.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	399.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	4c	370.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	361.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	16c	359.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	14c	350$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba7…1de3backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes	6c	320.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	265.76$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.44	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	5c	260$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	13c	258.38$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	257.3$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x832e…cb3ebacked Yes	19c	237.44$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…8417backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1606…0ba6backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	100	21%21 W · 79 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…d855backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d4…2a18backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0571…43d4backed Yes	13c	199.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+70%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	12c	197.14$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47b0…0237backed Yes	14c	178.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40f…091cbacked Yes	12c	169.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e8…3c88backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Yes	7c	165.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Yes	7c	160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	12c	160$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	7c	159.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5f…9f74backed Yes	19c	157.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9343…f024backed Yes	12c	149.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1103…6429backed Yes	12c	140$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0347…3cb9backed Yes	14c	137$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c15…21b3backed Yes	10c	135$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	13c	118$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e97…72a5backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	10c	111.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Yes	12c	109.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…eaf2backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4814…a24abacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5497…8ac9backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d5e…26d5backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+226.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee1d…fba5backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9980…e3c9backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…0f1bbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdbf…83d3backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event