TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Packers (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Packersof Packers, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Bears47c21,887$10,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,308.2586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Packers53c19,299$10,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,105.4647348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Packers53c17,500$9,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,25035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Packers52c11,192$5,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,375.314252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bears48c9,984$4,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,792.3219553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Packers52c9,504$4,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,562.116860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears47c7,777$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,655.1924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Bears48c7,350$3,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5283863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Packers51c5,914$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.8117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41df…95efbacked Bears48c5,102$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bears46c5,034$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.0853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Bears48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Packers52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4006639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Bears49c4,941$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4215648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bears49c4,898$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Packers52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.9926547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8854…0d9cbacked Packers53c4,310$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.871747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bears55c4,049$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.3150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Packers52c3,850$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8487346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Packers51c3,266$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.320661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Bears48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4407626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa832…e6febacked Packers38c2,910$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Bears48c2,447$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.3910142.6%43 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Bears47c2,437$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.1814154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Packers52c2,279$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.1611168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Packers53c2,128$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.35754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Bears48c2,062$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Packers51c2,033$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.231,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Packers51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.9714757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Packers53c1,749$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.0314641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Bears48c1,625$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7805756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Packers52c1,600$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76826648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Packers52c1,468$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.365048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Packers54c1,400$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64411759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Bears49c1,343$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6586549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Packers55c1,253$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.8513560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e24…7f38backed Bears48c1,100$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Bears48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Packers52c1,040$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.236233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64a2…4a7ebacked Bears48c1,034$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Packers52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Packers51c969.29$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Bears48c939.58$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Bears48c937.5$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45018650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Packers50c901.29$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.445648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…8b6ebacked Bears46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed78…f62bbacked Bears52c673.08$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Packers55c655.41$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.9453253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Bears49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Bears49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Packers50c595.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.5516451.2%84 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b8…d1fbbacked Packers53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick38cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Packers53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.046755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Packers52c550$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26459453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Bears49c529.37$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3912039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Packers52c520.63$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9419459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Packers51c513.68$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.685164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+36.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3b2d…25febacked Packers53c508.93$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.11030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Packers53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23518044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b5…a43bbacked Bears49c479.51$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Packers50c474.75$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x694c…2546backed Packers53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+63.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c77…6282backed Packers54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.963435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Bears49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Packers46c406.54$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5310555.2%58 W · 47 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…1d1dbacked Bears49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1961838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Bears53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128536.5%31 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Bears49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19620650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Packers55c363$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.3513959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Packers53c313.21$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.215444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Packers52c308$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8430442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed Bears47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-49.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Bears49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1476162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Bears47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415939%23 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Packers51c295$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.5514949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b0e…7288backed Packers52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.461361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Packers53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.027741.6%32 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bears47c283.02$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Bears52c259.1$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.147044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Bears47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12022142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd976…7050backed Bears47c242.77$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Packers52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.611740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Bears47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.44057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Packers53c220$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.42544%11 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bears48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007550.7%38 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85a5…6721backed Packers53c206.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.12347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Bears49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c3…3242backed Bears49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Packers52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9611752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked Packers54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Bears48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9613347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Bears49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9813435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Packers51c193.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9914355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Packers52c191.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.76165.6%40 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1760…c4edbacked Packers53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers55c187.2$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3556852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Packers51c185.25$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.771,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bears50c180$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9068446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Packers48c174.79$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.893946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.