NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Packers: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbde442821307fa100afa4568fff9d6a53967431fdc38fcf4e437c53d0d8955f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 38c | 3,132$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.84 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 2,555$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.09 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Under | 56c | 992$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.52 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 44c | 742$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.52 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 63c | 670$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 338.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 71c | 141.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 138.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 51c | 43.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…91ebbacked Under | 67c | 22.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
- Bears vs. PackersPackers won
- Bears vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-5.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-9.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.