NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Packers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6cd54ec121b221848352c30ebcd1c865b9fcedc7fdab62e6e0b7d9dee9728a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,399.98 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 52c | 28,083$14,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,480 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 8,727$4,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,189.86 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 5,825$2,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.83 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Under | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 969.71$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.71 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 49c | 300.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 50c | 154.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…9696backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…266fbacked Over | 53c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Under | 50c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
- Bears vs. PackersPackers won
- Bears vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-5.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-9.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.