NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Packers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf20b8d792aed9c016360ef372dd7d2b8b0d92e2f15b9e7192cedfed8538d595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 41,602$19,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,636.48 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 35,228$18,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,457.62 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 14,186$6,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,592.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Over | 47c | 12,766$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,765.96 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 53c | 12,093$6,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,375.65 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 54c | 10,911$5,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 52c | 10,083$5,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,243.16 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 8,828$4,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,678.74 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 53c | 4,536$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,403.97 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 1,973$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.95 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 47c | 1,496$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.63 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,302$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.74 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 1,206$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.83 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 47c | 1,084$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 48c | 417$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881f…dfe9backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Over | 47c | 85.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41e…eca9backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 46.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 47c | 35.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 33.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1d…e003backed Under | 54c | 29.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…5d1cbacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
- Bears vs. PackersPackers won
- Bears vs. Packers: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 34.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-10.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-5.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-9.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.