Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccef99d65986918e0cc4bdf602d721d670fe2739b2511d3d2e4ed34056e9a824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 11,002$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 18c | 10,465$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.63 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 5c | 7,528$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.97 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 5,003$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 22c | 4,300$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 30c | 4,166$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.02 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 46c | 4,048$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.01 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 27c | 3,393$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.52 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 16c | 3,100$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.7 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 33c | 2,782$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.96 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,351$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.36 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 2,250$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.26 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 11c | 2,222$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 56c | 2,150$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.94 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,943$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 39c | 1,765$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.61 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 44c | 1,753$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 1,684$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.26 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 36c | 1,500$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 18c | 1,290$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 65cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,247$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 23c | 1,174$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 61c | 1,065$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.3 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 7c | 1,063$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 73c | 1,028$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed No | 80c | 1,027$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 32c | 1,005$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.12 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 27c | 983.44$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 854.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…cf9cbacked Yes | 13c | 783.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 9c | 758.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 35c | 649.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 615.32$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 42c | 592.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6d69backed Yes | 25c | 589$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 19c | 552.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 33c | 542.67$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 527.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…269abacked Yes | 31c | 503.91$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 23c | 490.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 35c | 450.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8e97backed No | 79c | 446$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 23c | 432.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 40c | 424.91$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked No | 79c | 401.19$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed No | 65c | 389.48$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.79 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 11c | 385.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 9c | 371.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 26c | 350.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 61c | 338.97$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 35c | 336.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 329.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 34c | 326.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 8c | 316.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 12c | 316.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…bf9dbacked Yes | 19c | 313.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…db9fbacked Yes | 42c | 312.88$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 23c | 280$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 20c | 251.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…140cbacked Yes | 32c | 245.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 69c | 243.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 223.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 9c | 221.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 26c | 220.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 16c | 219.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 28c | 216$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…5e50backed Yes | 27c | 206.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 13c | 204$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 15c | 201.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 35c | 197.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 21c | 195$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 14c | 194$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 19c | 179.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 45c | 173.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…4aa8backed Yes | 26c | 171.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…d991backed Yes | 36c | 171.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 169.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 15c | 161.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 19c | 159.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 26c | 158.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 57c | 155$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 8–August 15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.