Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e4f08ca5128854846f7a06284af71c427c721b8b177337a165285808303e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $272,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 4c | 20,769$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.12 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 13,710$10,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.09 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 9c | 13,000$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.98 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…6badbacked No | 4c | 10,463$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 28c | 6,432$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,611.27 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 29c | 6,241$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.01 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 45c | 6,118$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,347.63 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 45c | 5,841$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,231.45 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 60c | 5,350$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 59c | 4,960$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.83 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 45c | 3,737$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.59 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 34c | 3,268$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.2 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed No | 34c | 3,128$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.51 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.23 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 66c | 2,832$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.42 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 57c | 2,478$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.39 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 2,380$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.7 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 2,208$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.83 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed No | 52c | 2,125$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed No | 48c | 1,845$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 47c | 1,695$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.11 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 20c | 1,618$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.82 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 64c | 1,597$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.29 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 74c | 1,554$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.16 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 51c | 1,487$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.23 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 12c | 1,209$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.08 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 40c | 1,179$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.53 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3022…59c1backed No | 67c | 1,100$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,046$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.41 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed No | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 47c | 1,020$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 1,020$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.46 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 65c | 900.19$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.19 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…9c45backed No | 51c | 887.62$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 32c | 855.31$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.64 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 2c | 843.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 44c | 786.07$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.7 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 20c | 754.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.7 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…140cbacked Yes | 37c | 681.14$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.6 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 39c | 666.49$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 654.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.58 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…7b94backed No | 63c | 650$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…b9bebacked Yes | 42c | 640.57$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 639.98$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 37c | 600$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…5e50backed Yes | 62c | 597.41$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 26c | 558.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.38 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 63c | 535.98$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 18c | 520.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.55 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 73c | 500$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 35c | 490.21$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.39 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…bf9dbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 56c | 446.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.07 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 50c | 423.75$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 23c | 414.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.18 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…49b5backed Yes | 72c | 410.87$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8e97backed No | 59c | 376.61$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…1eeebacked Yes | 38c | 374.64$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.64 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 64c | 363.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 56c | 359.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 40c | 358.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.65 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 22c | 349.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 68c | 342.65$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 329.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.79 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 44c | 327.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed No | 62c | 325.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6d69backed Yes | 45c | 325$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.42 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 55c | 315.97$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 70c | 300$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…33ddbacked No | 69c | 285.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…db9fbacked Yes | 47c | 280.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes | 61c | 280$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 32c | 278.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 55c | 273.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 66c | 271.72$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 57c | 270$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 62c | 244.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…856abacked No | 68c | 241$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 24c | 240.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.94 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 45c | 239.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…859ebacked Yes | 44c | 226.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 23c | 204$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 25c | 202.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…0f7bbacked Yes | 62c | 198.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 34c | 195.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 51c | 192.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 62c | 181.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 17c | 179.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 7c | 179$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 46c | 174.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 9c | 169.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 27c | 169.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 38c | 165.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 75c | 164$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.