Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2e7b80843acc85c3e84de357d5be960ec9219d7b6eb682934d0a7054a5f0ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 6c | 52,950$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.96 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 20c | 4,983$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.88 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.27 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 12c | 2,809$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 14c | 2,353$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed No | 72c | 2,323$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.99 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 74c | 2,309$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.34 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 18c | 2,168$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.55 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 2,158$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 31c | 2,084$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.01 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 27c | 1,625$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.19 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 24c | 1,547$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.99 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 74c | 1,456$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.46 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 78c | 1,276$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.83 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 16c | 1,234$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,045$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked No | 78c | 1,038$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Yes | 18c | 843.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed No | 69c | 792.06$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 14c | 717.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 28c | 703.57$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 28c | 680.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 35c | 674.78$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 663.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 47c | 658.6$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.76 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 29c | 605.82$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 15c | 605$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…bf9dbacked Yes | 26c | 576.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 14c | 509.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 80c | 461.91$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 460.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 4c | 448$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 30c | 434.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 75c | 421.89$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 62c | 390.17$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes | 29c | 352.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 26c | 346.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 323$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 30c | 320.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 304.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 22c | 292.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…4aa8backed Yes | 30c | 286.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e5…4828backed Yes | 39c | 255$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 23c | 253.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 16c | 246$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 79c | 231.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…d991backed Yes | 34c | 226.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…140cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 13c | 208.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 205.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 20c | 204$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d54abacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…6542backed Yes | 38c | 184.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…6d69backed Yes | 19c | 179.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 27c | 164.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed Yes | 23c | 156$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 25c | 155$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 154.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…2baebacked No | 65c | 149.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…ddf9backed Yes | 40c | 148.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…00c7backed No | 65c | 141.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 41c | 118.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…5488backed No | 67c | 113.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…ad70backed Yes | 44c | 109.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 19c | 107.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 20c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…1eeebacked Yes | 40c | 102.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…0f7bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…79e6backed No | 68c | 94.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…8581backed No | 65c | 94.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 85.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 21c | 80.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 73.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 78c | 66.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf50b…3cadbacked No | 67c | 61.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 44c | 57.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…a1a0backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 40c | 54.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5083backed Yes | 44c | 49.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 8–August 15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.