Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c95a15ebb2444e318019180afb11dc905c46b82d1e1ee7eddf33bbc80ff1cb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 47,825$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.59 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,873$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 6,223$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 6c | 5,380$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,215$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 4,832$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,695$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,879$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,234$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,198$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 1,920$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 2c | 1,630$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 11c | 1,006$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 4c | 862.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 10c | 827.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 536.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…bbc3backed Yes | 2c | 536.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 6c | 511.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 12c | 493.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…bf9dbacked Yes | 4c | 453.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 2c | 450.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 440.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 8c | 295.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55cc…3889backed Yes | 11c | 214.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 6c | 204$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 8–August 15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 450 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.