Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f02569fe2deb61082aaa0554eb9bd752b951fcea51733bd3dc3807f4546b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 7c | 32,781$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.99 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,316$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 5c | 9,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 7,886$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,391$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.84 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 7,163$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 0c | 5,054$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 4,399$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.33 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 10c | 3,300$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 9c | 3,273$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,569$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,517$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 0c | 2,210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,153$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 2,053$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,488$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…01adbacked Yes | 6c | 1,467$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,417$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 7c | 1,387$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 1c | 1,157$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…4f5dbacked Yes | 10c | 997.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 5c | 709.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 4c | 698.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 2c | 680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…7de7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…a107backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 429.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…90c0backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…a556backed Yes | 3c | 354.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…47bcbacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 5c | 261.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 8c | 244.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…0d79backed Yes | 12c | 236.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…ddccbacked Yes | 10c | 228$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…213ebacked Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…f3c3backed Yes | 8c | 192.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…be4bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…df18backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.