AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb391dab494fd79876e342d2c4488e579b3c7df8d3fffa4c16b49c815b8ccf44f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,238 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 26c | 2,684$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes | 61c | 2,292$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…9333backed Yes | 15c | 1,948$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 75c | 1,672$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 3c | 1,377$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 27c | 1,256$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.07 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 62c | 1,181$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.75 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Yes | 69c | 1,044$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 52c | 937.07$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.66 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes | 51c | 791.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 672.44$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.84 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…20c9backed No | 46c | 657.87$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 588.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.64 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 31c | 541.24$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.04 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 77c | 510$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 6c | 492.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 19c | 458.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.52 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes | 23c | 433.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…4561backed No | 38c | 392.03$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb548…4e9abacked Yes | 7c | 362.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 306.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.89 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 305.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…852abacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 16c | 300$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfda2…48cdbacked No | 24c | 295.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 277.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…6ceebacked Yes | 76c | 260$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 248.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 78c | 247$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…e74abacked Yes | 74c | 212.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 65c | 200.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63e…d3afbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 28c | 199.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 192.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 14c | 188$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 68c | 178.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 176.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 150.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…29e6backed Yes | 41c | 143.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…e1a2backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…2c54backed No | 31c | 140$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 21c | 126.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…fcccbacked Yes | 11c | 121.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 31c | 118.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f58abacked Yes | 69c | 114$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 113.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 78c | 111.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 111.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…b2bfbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…4242backed Yes | 14c | 109.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 80c | 108$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes | 80c | 104$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 26c | 100.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…67a2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 71c | 99.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 89.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…a33dbacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 54c | 74.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…e82ebacked Yes | 72c | 67.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 64.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 20c | 61.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069d…e68ebacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…0061backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 70c | 55.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed Yes | 76c | 52.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…8588backed No | 24c | 52.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +323.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e9…691dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 47.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…fa2abacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf06…c2e7backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 70c | 38.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 72c | 34.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…85ebbacked Yes | 78c | 33.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…e9e7backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…bb98backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…cda7backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…4cbfbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…3ab7backed Yes | 78c | 29.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…7d45backed Yes | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…7375backed Yes | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c4…d441backed Yes | 64c | 27.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…ef26backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 26.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 46c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.