AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01660c7930816a13e2e20cce662249c3e0fbe4b8a14d4b0d59686ac812db344a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,786 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 45c | 3,181$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.84 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 54c | 1,712$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 2c | 752.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 696.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…bb0fbacked Yes | 79c | 674.98$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 585.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 488.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 9c | 487.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Yes | 19c | 429.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 69c | 400.31$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 370.71$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…9333backed No | 28c | 361.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 62c | 357.34$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…e1d3backed Yes | 79c | 337.44$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 4c | 293.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 281.22$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 248.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 24c | 225$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 72c | 208.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 52c | 197.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 15c | 166.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 17c | 165$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 161.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 10c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes | 77c | 130.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 31c | 120.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 25c | 113.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 35c | 107.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked No | 23c | 88.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 17c | 75.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 72.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 18c | 61.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 68c | 57.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed No | 26c | 53.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 70c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 76c | 24.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 72c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…3cbfbacked Yes | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.