Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662308b5eb5b965d6d8be4090dd358bbd642abc24476f4d41a3be0324d97012e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 958$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 402.45$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 24c | 311.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 239.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 232.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed No | 72c | 220.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 220.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 210.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 209.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 183.11$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 176$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 18c | 170.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 26c | 145.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 117.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9189…4d82backed Yes | 28c | 116$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 114$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 106.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 101.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 26c | 100.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 85.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 84.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 14c | 79.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…82a9backed Yes | 27c | 64.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 62.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 58.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 73c | 56.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 65c | 55.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 53.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 53.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 52.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 52.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 50.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…5feabacked Yes | 29c | 49.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 48.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 42.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 75c | 40.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 61c | 33.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 72c | 31.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 31.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 52c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 76c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.