AI · resolved market
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2914fdd6e90e21200a6027914d8f7e3b75bbb51293b16da9887d41584f141363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,673$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,331$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cb…2748backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 19c | 940.47$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 6c | 902.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…a196backed Yes | 5c | 844.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 805.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 21c | 667.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 5c | 650.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed Yes | 7c | 640.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 637.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…9343backed Yes | 9c | 570.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 499.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 78c | 486.78$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 25c | 409.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 380.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 77c | 380$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 352.33$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 350.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…02e7backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 8c | 307.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…41a2backed Yes | 24c | 247.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 12c | 205.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 18c | 155$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…b899backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f50…9569backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 73c | 87.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 19c | 79.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…646ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…a79bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…7caabacked No | 76c | 46.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 22c | 44.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.