TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes72c4,709$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.43823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No20c3,672$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.096328.6%18 W · 45 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c2,210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1115615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes39c1,560$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.535832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes41c1,108$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.984219%8 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No23c926.93$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.021414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed Yes70c841.64$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked No41c834.43$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No6c819.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496b…90f0backed Yes61c785.2$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes22c682.88$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.572657.7%15 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed Yes61c677.29$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c636.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.531,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c606.85$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4172935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No9c500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes64c470$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.211330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes70c395.48$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.192218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No37c389.48$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2112636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No31c385.08$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf526…35b1backed Yes78c378.57$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No38c349.51$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes66c301$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.842429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee49…155ebacked No30c300$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.970%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf06d…562fbacked Yes24c287.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+311.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe703…8d89backed Yes22c273.67$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.671513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a45…0876backed Yes66c258.75$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.68728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-57.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cc…4da3backed Yes79c253.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476a…2a22backed Yes72c249.87$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.383100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No40c249.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1471…7926backed No58c223.78$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…1ad5backed Yes19c213.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+335.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b2…6ec0backed Yes67c209.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes64c200.5$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.57951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f2…5990backed Yes64c199.83$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes65c152.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-33.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes67c150.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No31c139.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3321125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb0…a6c3backed Yes61c137.84$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked Yes65c136.44$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.881070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes77c130.58$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.514250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes62c128.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4818544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe03b…1007backed Yes64c125.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.59333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a3…534bbacked Yes66c124.52$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes67c119.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.82450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No32c116.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9928828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes65c104.36$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.42850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No28c101.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.132110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes60c100.49$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.852222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.551926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b7…542fbacked Yes65c93.1$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No77c90$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3330127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes62c88.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0411030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d770backed Yes63c87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes64c80.75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a2…dba3backed Yes61c76.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fef…1c91backed Yes66c76.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357c…8eadbacked Yes67c74.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+32.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes67c72.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.182458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6d…3fd7backed Yes63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f95…df3abacked Yes30c67.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+236.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked No38c66.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b29…a0aabacked Yes62c64.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4433…b52bbacked Yes70c55.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes37c54.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6525731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd0b…41febacked Yes30c50.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+157.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…7553backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ea…79d8backed Yes79c48.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9171…3cc8backed Yes57c47.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2848…08f6backed Yes38c45.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3390…95d6backed Yes66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…ede5backed Yes67c43.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x933b…de1abacked Yes64c42.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No25c41.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.413920.5%8 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3d…8322backed Yes64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2526…32f6backed Yes64c39.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a0…47a8backed Yes65c38.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x719c…6165backed Yes80c37.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a8…8718backed Yes63c36.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.34683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes65c33.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.591040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…6cbcbacked Yes65c32.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…d073backed No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f08…d5d5backed Yes71c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d7…e59dbacked Yes64c23.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcee8…57b4backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb187…3d7cbacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.