AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b893f9cf053374239e87d49e758bd91a4799c559aeffb892a9a5928fcd3a33b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 3,298$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 8c | 1,839$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 9c | 799.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 2c | 752.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 9c | 536.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 13c | 490.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 387.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dac…8147backed Yes | 6c | 327.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 16c | 319.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…b204backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 103.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on May 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $310b on May 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.