AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0c668989dacaaf3826c098c10819182e2be6b39f7afc4eed412a9c11f0e40f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,001 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes | 61c | 834.06$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…20c9backed No | 40c | 735.27$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 9c | 604.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 3c | 413.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 75c | 360.24$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 266.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 254.86$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 29c | 232.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 58c | 171.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 169.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 67c | 151.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 125.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 104.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 74c | 103.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked Yes | 30c | 89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 20c | 86.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 59c | 84.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 57c | 75.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes | 60c | 66.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…14b7backed Yes | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 30c | 51.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 50.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 76c | 50.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…6e52backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Yes | 63c | 39.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 53c | 34.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…e5c8backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…c8d7backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 60c | 20.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…3627backed Yes | 72c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…44dfbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?No won
- Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?No won
- Will TikTok - Videos, Shop & LIVE be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.