Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Khamenei before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ad72a606d62d5228a0e69b6acc804bba5d565510ecc8295c7012ba62ccbd177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 2c | 19,866$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.25 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 17,847$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 9,368$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 1c | 7,775$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 6,194$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…ec57backed Yes | 3c | 5,665$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 4,431$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 3,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,102$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…cf53backed Yes | 4c | 2,772$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 1c | 2,427$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 2,183$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…8454backed Yes | 4c | 2,039$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,006$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,829$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed Yes | 3c | 1,655$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1975…5d7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,643$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…5505backed Yes | 2c | 1,471$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,407$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…56dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…ed46backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…f5aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,138$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…ba7bbacked Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed Yes | 3c | 574.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 2c | 512.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 5c | 500.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…5f25backed Yes | 3c | 495.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…ad22backed Yes | 2c | 406.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…af01backed Yes | 3c | 400.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ff…f74cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0419…39b1backed Yes | 5c | 200.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.