Space · resolved market
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d4617ebe965d2e646b7898c238ece0b21809f3ed6acf4373c0c03764865e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,379$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 55c | 1,266$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 51c | 1,171$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 35c | 1,125$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 33c | 1,060$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 50c | 729.45$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…910fbacked No | 45c | 703$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 52c | 548.9$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df2…a33abacked No | 59c | 512.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 68c | 364.45$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 25c | 356.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes | 70c | 307.37$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…a675backed No | 39c | 303.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +93%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…cfa0backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 37c | 156.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed No | 44c | 114.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Yes | 75c | 110$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…cff0backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…e7c5backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…2b59backed No | 80c | 64.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 59.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…9388backed Yes | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…76afbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…f1c6backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a5…3f3cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…868cbacked Yes | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes | 70c | 20.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?this page
- Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?No won
- SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down?No won
- SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Yes won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?No won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch reaches space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend the launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.