Us Politics · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44086f41b5231fe9d5cd364a1ad6cccd3e4387df0e05083514e048b88b42a543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b2…57b9backed Yes | 51c | 38,003$19,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,381.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…e8bbbacked No | 49c | 38,003$18,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,381.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…c3cebacked No | 58c | 27,765$16,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,661.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…bd1bbacked Yes | 42c | 27,765$11,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,661.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 56c | 3,461$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.5 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 39c | 2,084$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.07 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 7c | 1,291$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 58c | 1,231$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 43c | 1,001$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…d78cbacked No | 49c | 930$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed No | 47c | 755$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfd…2449backed Yes | 51c | 620$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…a6d3backed Yes | 51c | 615$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked Yes | 29c | 550$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…602dbacked Yes | 53c | 545$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…5df6backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 42c | 410.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…b6e9backed No | 49c | 360$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 62c | 321.58$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 43c | 319.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 47c | 283.92$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…bb19backed Yes | 53c | 235$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 219.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…a641backed No | 47c | 205$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…0ae6backed Yes | 53c | 185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 59c | 166.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 47c | 156.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5654backed No | 56c | 143.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 130.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…b693backed No | 77c | 123.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…b959backed No | 50c | 119.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…8d32backed No | 72c | 119.32$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd690…c661backed Yes | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 63c | 103.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 102.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 43c | 98.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6893…0ca8backed Yes | 41c | 97.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 32c | 95.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 44c | 87.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 60c | 83.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…948ebacked No | 58c | 82.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ed…3990backed Yes | 37c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 74c | 78.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 41c | 77.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90c…9833backed Yes | 67c | 74.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…e8a2backed No | 67c | 74.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 60c | 71.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe602…c28abacked No | 65c | 68.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…e79ebacked No | 58c | 64.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed No | 64c | 60.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…999dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…184cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 51c | 37.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…d71fbacked No | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 42c | 35.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 71c | 35.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 31c | 35.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…0ac8backed No | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…ee23backed No | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 80c | 17.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.