Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325eb8ed13523545347015fcf2ae8f268f1271e2ecd808f43f84da1472312e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba0c…a550backed No | 3c | 6,780$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.73 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +1,025.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 3c | 4,990$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 2,677$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed Yes | 75c | 1,141$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.42 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 50c | 711.74$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.87 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 2c | 459.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 43c | 314.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe33…bd18backed No | 10c | 237.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed Yes | 70c | 170.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3c…472ebacked No | 18c | 151.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 50c | 115.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…9518backed No | 68c | 99.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 24c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 57c | 52.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 30c | 46.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…0328backed Yes | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 70c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or higher on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.