Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50°F and 51°F on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473ce5024ddecb71d3e905c65a2c8954df09a5f74784b8eeeb107c0098c02b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 4c | 22,175$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,386.45 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 1c | 7,806$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 79c | 4,384$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.25 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 39c | 4,379$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,664.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…b663backed No | 69c | 3,815$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,626.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 4c | 3,357$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,217.59 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 3,027$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,638.98 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,930$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.4 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 1c | 2,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,961$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.33 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,333$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.99 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 8c | 770$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…a189backed Yes | 46c | 622.95$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.9 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 422.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 27c | 384.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 8c | 173.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.92 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 11c | 158.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…5362backed Yes | 13c | 118.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +280.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…c18fbacked Yes | 19c | 108.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 75c | 107.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…9b47backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 23c | 84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -6.5wins | -0.43per pick | 50cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50°F and 51°F on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44°F and 45°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48°F and 49°F on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.