Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London between 43-44°F on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e4ec72627751ae5b8d8494e16cda03545d047e49291a0c8f6acea6f4b6f396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 51c | 5,020$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.01 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 46c | 3,509$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.68 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 65c | 2,861$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.51 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 64c | 900.48$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…a189backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 62c | 162.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed No | 73c | 139.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 30c | 125.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed No | 69c | 121.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 45c | 115.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 105.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked Yes | 70c | 82.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe33…bd18backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3c…472ebacked No | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 67c | 53.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 38c | 48.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 32c | 42.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 40.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 55c | 30.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 21.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…552fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London between 43-44°F on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London between 41-42°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London between 45-46°F on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London between 47-48°F on February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.