IPO · resolved market
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32a9214a40b89dfb9ed00c1d771adab28434ffe01e9a1ba908559c6fa25e545f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa6b…8189backed No | 61c | 1,305$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 22c | 962.23$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 931.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 418.3$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 23c | 394.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 9c | 313.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…7fbbbacked Yes | 24c | 251.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 250.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 242.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 25c | 224.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 77c | 217$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 209.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3f…8728backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 14c | 195.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 177.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 25c | 167$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 49c | 165.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 147.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes | 76c | 143.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 136.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…f66fbacked Yes | 18c | 133.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…4c51backed Yes | 23c | 133.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 9c | 124.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 26c | 120.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 44c | 119.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 12c | 114.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…4e65backed Yes | 31c | 113.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 111.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…3387backed No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 21c | 110.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed No | 78c | 101.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed No | 77c | 100.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…b938backed No | 78c | 91.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…6347backed Yes | 23c | 87.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…053fbacked No | 61c | 82.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 20c | 80.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…69b9backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 43c | 71.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 66c | 71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 24c | 70.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 70c | 67.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…64adbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 61c | 59.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 65c | 57.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 57.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 39c | 53.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 30c | 50.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…59e6backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fb…4d56backed No | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 68c | 34.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1463…30fcbacked No | 80c | 26.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 70c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…6d33backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…0babbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…6561backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6d…f2a1backed No | 57c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1d…40b3backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?this page
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.