Ukraine · resolved market
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd448728596dca5fe29b639c4a1743274a92f70bb835f0014774525aa50c27533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $424,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $508,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc359…5549backed No | 0c | 25,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 24,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…3fc1backed No | 0c | 15,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed No | 0c | 10,411$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed No | 0c | 8,630$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed No | 0c | 6,389$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed No | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 0c | 5,742$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…0b2ebacked No | 11c | 5,020$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 13c | 4,975$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 11c | 4,067$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed No | 11c | 3,312$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.24 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 8c | 3,048$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked No | 0c | 3,022$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 2c | 1,875$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 971.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 73c | 806.99$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 3c | 653.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…999dbacked No | 17c | 597.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed No | 10c | 499.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…e666backed No | 15c | 496.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 7c | 464.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5703…5e60backed Yes | 67c | 444.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 8c | 427$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed No | 10c | 415.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 415.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…24ffbacked No | 15c | 339.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 7c | 306$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked No | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 79c | 283.39$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 259.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…c965backed No | 9c | 231.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…e8c9backed Yes | 67c | 227.51$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 12c | 219.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 7c | 211$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…345abacked No | 9c | 211$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 7c | 205.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 64c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 24c | 197.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked No | 10c | 184.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 64c | 184.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…0e14backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 62c | 161.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…38e1backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…9b95backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…281ebacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 76c | 123.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…018dbacked No | 18c | 82.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…d197backed No | 12c | 82.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 38c | 81.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…323dbacked Yes | 64c | 77.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90a…4dbabacked No | 26c | 77.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 76c | 61.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ab71backed No | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…3299backed No | 35c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 40c | 46.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 36c | 38.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.