World Politics · resolved market
French confidence vote fails?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7464266f1f14b02f491646324ca166f7fc89bdf2cb75c9e15735160f048d981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked No | 1c | 100,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 5cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…1d6bbacked No | 2c | 5,011$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…77f2backed No | 2c | 4,161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 1c | 3,750$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2caa…8803backed No | 4c | 3,045$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 2c | 2,769$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed No | 5c | 2,615$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…0643backed No | 14c | 1,792$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 13c | 1,273$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 4c | 1,225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…9844backed No | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 1,062$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 842.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a8…5b11backed No | 5c | 798.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 6c | 652.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked No | 2c | 631.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 78c | 542.67$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 37c | 425.66$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…271fbacked No | 3c | 411.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…b25abacked No | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 9c | 387.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…13fbbacked Yes | 78c | 370.2$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 80c | 315.34$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…0bb8backed No | 5c | 300.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 293.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…2642backed No | 15c | 286.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 20c | 260.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 8c | 217.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 66c | 203.22$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 7c | 159.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 9c | 158.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…aff1backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 12c | 141.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 108.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed No | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 84.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 31c | 77.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 67c | 75.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 57.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8447…5a0ebacked Yes | 73c | 42.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.