TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump positive favorability on March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes0c19,385$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.49810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes22c3,700$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83116943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes47c3,406$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.55641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes20c3,400$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No63c2,910$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.7211848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes18c2,705$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked No80c2,601$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.21757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes3c2,355$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.735916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b14…49a4backed Yes1c2,237$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.03156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes17c2,102$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.052313%3 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes19c1,600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3123138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes2c1,523$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.463221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes7c1,397$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes5c1,196$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0910035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No78c1,181$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.5117633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e2a…5f18backed Yes8c1,061$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a45…cf97backed Yes2c957.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes10c900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bb…ff01backed No77c770.98$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.98757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes5c761.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.656530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes10c751.45$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.612222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes20c750.55$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c703.44$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes17c693$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.811612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba2…eaa7backed No63c660.27$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.781258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes18c605.62$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9466…40afbacked Yes33c598.91$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No79c562$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.043151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38d…52a2backed Yes4c559.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No68c490.16$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9112619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c461.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes35c459.34$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+87.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No65c459.34$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.775756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No75c388.89$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49bf…db20backed Yes6c366.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked No75c364$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes33c363.75$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.86728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes17c355.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.62317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e0b…9bfbbacked Yes4c313.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes21c305.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.224438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes13c299.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed Yes8c287.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes18c280.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc743…44d8backed Yes7c268.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…3fc1backed Yes9c215.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x668c…ee31backed Yes10c211.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b11…8625backed Yes9c210$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-81.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…f9a4backed Yes13c185.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x055c…e4adbacked No76c178.04$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.081145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked No74c161$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.592842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes35c150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5223543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da5…79eebacked No72c139.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+63.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c125.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes34c107.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.358544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes17c104.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.691838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…f8f5backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes14c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ac6…950ebacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.535358.5%31 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.33551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+59.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441936.8%7 W · 12 L-5.2wins-0.28per pick64cpaid-44.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No68c50.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.086442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f3…f6b1backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes45c49.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.483732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.88741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes56c39.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No45c36.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.18143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x622a…14f0backed No72c34.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+78.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No59c33.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.645966.1%39 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.128636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf52…41d9backed No70c22.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fbc…f97bbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.272661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.