China Taiwan · resolved market
China-Vietnam trade deal before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90799c718142a4f0311a6f0fd25da265479c37a6f10881025ed077e1db14754b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfab…d980backed Yes | 33c | 32,633$10,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,864.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb657…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 32,633$21,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,864.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,034$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 2,661$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,328$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +344%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…9dafbacked No | 2c | 1,690$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,183$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +793.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 7c | 1,095$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +432.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 76c | 857.76$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 6c | 838.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +810.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 27c | 673.42$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 34c | 607.08$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 76c | 527.7$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 73c | 487.94$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 68c | 415.68$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 72c | 408.81$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…021dbacked No | 25c | 400.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 377.88$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.24 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…0f77backed Yes | 28c | 354.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f57…d43cbacked Yes | 6c | 328.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,542.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 69c | 306.14$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 253.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 18c | 210.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 67c | 143.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 17c | 137$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 130.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 21c | 119.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed Yes | 18c | 108.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +470.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…9ae3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 14c | 94.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 83.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 21c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c88…383abacked Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…2d12backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 46.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 58c | 43.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 71c | 41.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…0a7cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…ab53backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.