Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Congress pass a bill limiting Trump's tariffs before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb470629dc5e77d8ca8da444c991e9a7f6d5c2dadffb8d3e6966bd97a3f498e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes | 7c | 3,281$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,980$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 2,221$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,540$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,242$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…bd2cbacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 859.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 4c | 562.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 6c | 484.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 9c | 479.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 4c | 415.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091d…44ddbacked Yes | 5c | 315.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…d394backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.