World Politics · resolved market
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Poland Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9679da2c4d59858988861588211c64c3fdc71918e4644d4a1a26e95b92d7ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…5f5dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,018$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…722ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,092$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd53…e541backed Yes | 1c | 2,866$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 1c | 2,697$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…6f90backed Yes | 1c | 2,256$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 3c | 1,380$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,008$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 6c | 900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 862.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 3c | 850.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 6c | 325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 4c | 281.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 6c | 184.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 162.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.