Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e1ece7552e4066c95f6eaa15d0593b5b2361557a3c9310d1201eeea2cebd47f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 18c | 3,007$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.17 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 10c | 1,421$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.73 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 9c | 1,035$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +567%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 9c | 746.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 7c | 701.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed No | 41c | 265$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 63c | 225.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…64bcbacked Yes | 23c | 121$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +195.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…dc89backed No | 74c | 95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 69c | 89.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…5f75backed No | 74c | 84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…6b2cbacked Yes | 26c | 84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +179.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e4…d28cbacked No | 74c | 77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…ff64backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d8…7d2dbacked No | 77c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…e46dbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…0aa4backed No | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8ae2backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on February 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on February 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.