World Politics · resolved market
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9baf4d76ae15a66739def76768e1631ad57267e7f4cf3a046e985b75113efd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bf3…f2fabacked No | 4c | 1,402$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 2c | 1,216$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 6c | 707.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 470.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 29c | 400.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.76 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 396.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a2…5ccfbacked Yes | 61c | 328.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 316.19$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…9a68backed Yes | 28c | 262.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 59c | 247.88$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 233.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 56c | 181.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8924backed Yes | 62c | 175.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 138.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 29c | 132.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…5991backed Yes | 68c | 127.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…e8f6backed Yes | 45c | 119.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 100.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked No | 70c | 71.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…d0d9backed No | 32c | 67.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…df4ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 59.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 51.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 28c | 43.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 30c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 38.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 43c | 28.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…4cd1backed Yes | 68c | 28.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?this page
- Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
- Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
- Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.