World Politics · resolved market
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d456314cbe5014da46ff5d3e98782e127b51c6486a39dc15d5e03cb6cbbab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,163$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,668$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.36 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes | 8c | 977.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 780.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 9c | 700$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked Yes | 6c | 593.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 591.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 576$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 530$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 353.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…1552backed Yes | 6c | 344.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 342$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 235.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 5c | 221$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 208$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 198$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 197.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 19c | 180.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 8c | 149.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 42c | 141.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 19c | 139.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…3adfbacked No | 44c | 100.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…5991backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 75.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 55c | 50.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…e426backed Yes | 28c | 42.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 31c | 40.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked No | 77c | 27.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 78c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?this page
- Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes won
- Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
- Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.