World Politics · resolved market
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 23–25 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29be5e3386ffe130a7759647b3b863d8ae5fdffc37c768a825d54431fe2b8a41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 66c | 399.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 35c | 286.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 57c | 267.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 43c | 247.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…8988backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +406%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 185.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 35c | 180$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 70c | 147.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 90.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 88.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 87.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…f547backed Yes | 31c | 79.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…d483backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…ada5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 36c | 48.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…6918backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 32c | 37.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 36c | 32.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 66c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 23–25 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 22 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 29 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.