Us Politics · resolved market
Will DOGE cut $1B from USAID before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67f86ba114c60bdeeb28bd442629f3ce3e35f5febd95851a9b5574df43e0ec02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 19c | 1,404$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.87 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 30c | 1,092$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.25 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 78c | 975.29$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 26c | 880.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 804.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…3428backed No | 15c | 768$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 22c | 730$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.1 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked No | 22c | 717.6$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 52c | 599.8$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.84 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 43c | 351.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 35c | 316.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…8625backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 56c | 287.21$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Yes | 23c | 257.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +330.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 37c | 250.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.66 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 229.16$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes | 58c | 191.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 35c | 191$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 20c | 190$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…e4e4backed Yes | 68c | 172.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 22c | 170.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 21c | 161.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 63c | 154.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 67c | 153.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 15c | 133.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 24c | 87.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…9aafbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55df…12d3backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 22c | 70.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc505…f3a0backed Yes | 62c | 58.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…6f1cbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 42.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 56c | 41.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f13…5b36backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 30c | 34.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes | 70c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.