Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift mention Travis Kelce on her new album?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c332b5a2c2b8b8862572b705e38fc78119fc5c19f0a895e719696f7ccb313e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 19c | 1,323$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 17c | 805.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 19c | 615.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 7c | 434.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…4eb7backed Yes | 13c | 372.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 352$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 4c | 333.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 21c | 247$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 140.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc425…1629backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 16c | 132.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 18c | 93.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…c839backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…afb5backed Yes | 19c | 53.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.