Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9502292740c652a17058e0a9fd61054e7df18745391952928e33af417f78dc5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 26c | 1,806$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.3 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 1,096$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.32 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 995.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 989.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 29c | 798.49$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.69 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 4c | 692.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 626.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 588.53$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.97 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 544$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 60c | 521.34$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 507.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 60c | 481.25$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 380.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 58c | 361.92$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed No | 51c | 349.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 345$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 26c | 336.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 293.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 61c | 288.9$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 35c | 280.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 9c | 258$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 50c | 234.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 39c | 226.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…4078backed No | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 212.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 10c | 202$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 23c | 191.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked No | 59c | 169.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 49c | 134.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 60c | 105.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 41c | 92.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 35c | 89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a058backed No | 61c | 62.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 57c | 52.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked Yes | 33c | 50.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…2e86backed No | 56c | 42.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…fa4ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…70a6backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…5a99backed No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 26.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…67c4backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2553…3dc5backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.