TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump impose tariff on oil from Mexico or Canada by next Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$319,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,540 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf971…8ef1backed No0c69,907$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c50,292$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.3916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No2c16,147$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.2711612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb39b…1427backed No0c12,405$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes29c6,712$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,747.717146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x439a…e4e4backed No0c6,236$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes20c3,540$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.95329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No13c3,501$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.989958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes49c3,420$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.21952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No11c3,369$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.823859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes22c2,741$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.8141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked No6c2,481$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.711637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes27c2,188$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.274650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes50c2,063$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.2313145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No6c2,022$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.882626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes12c1,998$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.273125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x767c…ca6abacked Yes27c1,788$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No68c1,705$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.115756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes31c1,602$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.1116943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No24c1,585$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9428636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes65c1,555$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.619348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes50c1,455$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.928640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes45c1,417$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.386051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No74c1,350$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d10…dca1backed No3c1,186$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes15c1,113$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.998843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde17…b0a9backed No5c1,090$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4701…95a0backed No26c961.22$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No2c936.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9211646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked No50c912$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked No27c884.82$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.681030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes12c822$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.667038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes21c777.23$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.5510749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes17c695.43$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.431844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+118%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes11c600$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5348547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c599.98$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.9920446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No76c548.42$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.863253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…caa5backed No71c452.75$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed No63c452.7$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.475147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c400$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29069634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed No21c399.53$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No65c370.14$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5211848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x711e…2091backed Yes15c333.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.33911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c308.8$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.661,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No72c308.44$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.373551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes39c308.03$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.937943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed Yes29c305.86$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.421136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9488…6802backed Yes76c302.88$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes25c278.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8914843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed No16c275$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Yes32c250$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Yes25c238.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.165742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes65c230$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.816251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes35c228.13$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1617021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No76c224$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9314135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No36c223.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.94914.3%7 W · 42 L-6.7wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-54.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes24c204$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.623647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b8…1f22backed Yes63c200.16$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5e…3e95backed No21c199.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9436…af9ebacked Yes12c199.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No6c194.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2330319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes41c171.02$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No39c160$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3223543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes51c141.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No31c135$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.256645.5%30 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9b9…525abacked Yes12c125$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+276.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb018…8891backed Yes50c123.64$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.821020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes42c121.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7912740.2%51 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed No78c119.23$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes75c109.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.862142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed Yes16c103.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.522420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8786…f1aabacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes23c98.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.084346.5%20 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes53c91.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.517830.8%24 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes18c90.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.35128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes71c86.8$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.179248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No12c86.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3411121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No25c83.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.993917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes38c81.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.58580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+59.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes26c81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9710452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x108c…7d81backed No39c78.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.411315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x967c…5d9fbacked No52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e3…9136backed No68c73.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed No41c72.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.691163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No71c68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.283151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes30c67.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes60c66.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3119435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a26…9d2fbacked Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…8e16backed No56c53.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3781…b822backed No38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdccc…3ac3backed No74c51.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382552%13 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb155…e606backed Yes26c50.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+90%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.54637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…f825backed No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3914819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f6e…1571backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.